7 Strategies for filling out a Pool-Winning Bracket for March Madness 2023

Here are seven strategies that will help you win your March Madness 2023 pool. I utilized these strategies in winning pools since the late-90's, including last year and 2021, each year this article has been put out. Many readers have won pools as well. I won both of my pools in 2019. That year, I even went 4/4 in Final Four teams (a 1-in-5,000 shot!!) in one of my pools. Even if I don't win, I'm always in the mix when it gets to the Final Four, and have almost always won $$ in the secondary positions. 

In most large pools, you're going to have to get the champion right to even have a shot at winning the pool. The average winning score in a standard scoring system is between 120-150 points. A champion is worth 63 points. That means half of your points will come from the champion! Therefore, I like to pick my champion first. The only time I've ever won a pool (or even money) without getting the champion right was the perfect Final Four one because I was so far ahead that I won before the Final Four even started. 

1. Work backwards.

Yes, that's right. Do you pick the first round winners, then the second round, etc.? Basically, play out the tournament on paper? I always did that too...

But, it's better to do it the other way around. Pick your champion first, then your runner-up on the other side of the bracket, then the two losing Final Four teams, etc. As mentioned above, getting the champion right matters the most under most scoring systems. Pick the most probable champions, runner-ups, etc. to give you the best chance to win. How do you do that? On to #2...

2. Utilize models and betting numbers.

They don't even need to be ones you create either! You can use free ones. I like to use FiveThirtyEight, KenPom, and BPI. I'll download them, put them all in an Excel, and use a 1/3 weighted average for all three. This will give you the most probable champions, runner-ups, etc. 

I also like to use the non-vig odds from the sharpest sportsbook (Pinnacle) for the regional winners and champions as a guide. This gives you a true proportion as well. 

Alabama and Houston have around a 15% chance each of winning it all, and UCLA about 8%. If you have three brackets and choose each one of those as a champion, you're already giving yourself a 40% shot to be in the mix for some $$!!

3. See who the Public will select and fade them.

Yes, your old betting adage of fading the public applies here too. If a team is getting selected at a disproportionate rate, their loss will kill off most of those brackets.

I love to use ESPN's Who Picked Whom list, which shows the most common selections of millions of brackets in their pools. To me, this is the best indicator of who a large amount of people in your pool will select. Right now, Alabama has 20% of champion selections.

In 2019, the Zion Williamson led Duke was disproportionately selected as champions in 27% of brackets, even though the models only showed them with a 15% chance of winning, less than Virginia (25%) and Gonzaga (20%). From this, I knew that  that most people in my pool would pick Duke (it ended up being 40% in one pool and a whopping 60% in the other), so instead of getting caught up in the Duke rat race, I decided not to choose them as champion in any of my brackets, meaning their loss would eliminate the majority of my competition. Speaking of them....

4. Understand who your competition will pick based on the makeup of your pool.

Are you in a pool where most people are in Houston? They'll mostly pick Houston to win. Don't pick Houston in that pool. Are you in a pool where most of the members are UCLA alumni? Don't pick UCLA in that pool. There will be a disproportionate number of people picking those teams. These are good pools to utilize a Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, etc. champion pick.

5. Take into account who Vegas does not want (or wants) to win!

When the sportsbooks have liabilities in the futures markets, it means they are okay taking a chance on that team (meaning, they don't expect that team to win, and are okay with taking a risk in losing all that cash). In 2022, Vegas had liabilities on Gonzaga, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona, and a few others. Only one reached the Final Four, and none won the title. It's best to not have these teams as your champion. This year, one liability is Kansas. Also, last year, the sharps (professional bettors) and the sportsbooks wanted Kansas to win, which they did. This year, one of the better outcomes is Texas. For the rest, and who Vegas wants to win, be sure to check out our Futures Report!  

6. Create a realistic bracket using history as a guide!

There will not be all #1 seeds in the Final Four. That's happened once in history. There most likely won't be a #5 seed to win the title. If you had 5 brackets, here is how you should break down your selections based on historical results. 

The historical allocation of each seed by round (assuming 5 brackets). 

What does that mean? It means that you should only have #1-#3 seeds in your championship game and as your champion. Your Final Four itself will be mostly #1 and #2 seeds, and occasional #3-#5 seeds. Pick some #1 seeds to lose in the Second Round, and some #2 seeds as well. Don't pick the 1/16 upset, but, do pick a 2/15 upset, only if you did have 5+ brackets, and maybe if your scoring rewarded upsets. Speaking of which....

7. Optimize your bracket for the pool's scoring system!

Putting together a bracket in a pool using a standard 1-2-4-8-16-32 system is much different than a pool using a 1-2-4-8-12-20 system, or one that has an upset multiplier, etc. 

In a standard system, getting the championship game right is worth as much as the entire first round! In one where upsets matter, you're going to want to lean to your 5-12, 6-11 upsets, etc. 

The pool in which I went 4/4 in Final Four teams rewarded upsets in all rounds. Therefore, the optimal bracket did turn out to be a Virginia, Michigan State, Auburn, Texas Tech Final Four. I wouldn't have gone with that Final Four combination in any other scoring system. That's why my other one turned out to be Virginia, Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan. 

RECAP

Always work backwards and pick your champion first. Utilize models in doing so. See who the public is picking, and fade them. In doing that, understand who your competition will pick based on their biases. Take what Vegas wants to happen into account. Ensure your bracket is realistic and optimized for your pool's scoring system.

If you want to see this in practice, be sure to join live streams on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday on the BETTREdge YouTube Channel at 8 PM ET as we put together mock brackets using these tips. 

Be sure to become a member to get all the Vegas Needs, plays, and all sorts of other information to help inform your as a bettor this March Madness season. Best of luck this year!