Seven Tips for Betting Super Bowl Props in 2023
Feb 09, 2023
It's Super Bowl Weekend! One of the best times of the year. Did you know an estimated $16B will be wagered on the game this weekend? Over 70% will be on the vast array of props. I'll go through seven tips to help you navigate those markets.
I hope you find this useful in your wagering, and best of luck! Do reach out with any questions!
I hope you find this useful in your wagering, and best of luck! Do reach out with any questions!
TIP #1: SHOP AROUND
This goes applies to most every bet, but especially props. On an over/under for receiving yards, that might be different by a few yards! That matters. Also, some books are priced at -120/-120, and others at -110/-110. Even on YES/NO Bets, the juice/odds are very different at different books, so, make sure to look at different books to get the best line for your side. I know I sound like a broken record, but, those few yards are the difference between a win, loss, or push, and, that juice (either + or -) is a real dollar impact, and it adds up!
TIP #2: CREATE A NARRATIVE
Plot out how you think the game will go. If you're into models/simulations, then run those. That way, your entire profile of props make sense. For example, it probably won't make sense to bet the Chiefs team total Under and then Kelce to score multiple touchdowns. You'd want to make sure they're correlated. Will cover that more in Tip #4.
TIP #3: NO AND UNDER
In the Super Bowl, if you're on the fence, always lean No and Under. The public will always be on YES--YES to OT, YES to a safety, YES to a kick hitting the upright. Why? They want excitement. And excitement comes with YES's. So, the books and sharps will always want NO. Fun fact: You know what the worst prop betting play has been in Super Bowl history? When the Seahawks scored a safety on the first play from scrimmage in Super Bowl XLVIII. That was a 7-figure loss for the books on a single play! Public hit the YES to safety and the first score safety prop. Many of the bookmakers hadn't even turned on the game yet. They ended up making bank on that game since the public was on the Broncos big-time though.
In regards to excitement, the public will bet the Overs as well. Over on TDs, yards, etc. Again, because of excitement. Did the public enjoy the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl a few years ago? Hell no! The books and sharps sure did though.
In regards to excitement, the public will bet the Overs as well. Over on TDs, yards, etc. Again, because of excitement. Did the public enjoy the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl a few years ago? Hell no! The books and sharps sure did though.
TIP #4: LOOK FOR CORRELATED PROPS
If you're all in on the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, then look for props that will most likely happen in that scenario. For example, Jalen Hurts should have to have a decent game, so you might bet the Overs on his stats. Or, 60% of all MVPs have been quarterbacks (including many recently), so if you think the Eagles would win, then bet Jalen Hurts to be MVP. If you think the Chiefs will, then bet on Mahomes.
Also, look for correlated statistical props. If you think the game will go over the point total, then, pick the Overs on QB yards, TDs, etc. Or, vice-versa. If you think the Eagles will win, then you might pick Eagles Overs and Chiefs Unders.
On the flip side, don't bet too many props that would contradict eachother. I.E, If you bet the Over on the game and a lot of Unders on the props.
TIP #5: DON'T BET TOO MANY PROPS (OR IF YOU DO, PRACTICE BANKROLL MANAGEMENT)
Don't go out betting 20-30 props. You won't have an edge on most of them, and, the ones that you actually do have an edge on, might be negated by those many props you don't have an edge on. But, if you do, practice bankroll management. You'll not have an edge on the Gatorade color, but you might bet it for fun. Just take a portion of your bankroll (maybe 1-2 units), and split it up. It might just be a few dollars here and there, but you're just playing for fun and to make it interesting!
TIP #6: WATCH LINE MOVEMENT
With hundreds and hundreds of props out there, a lot of times, the books just put out a number and let the sharps beat it into place. The lines are relatively soft. Watching that line movement can help you distinguish where the sharps are, and, then you can try to find books that are late to adjust (see Tip #1!). This line movement can present middling opportunities as well.
Know that the very public props (QB passing yards, receiving yards), etc. will be pushed up by the public, so, if you're looking to bet the Under, wait until gametime. The sharps are doing that as well.
TIP #7: DONT BET THE COIN TOSS*
It's literally 50/50. And, most books price it at -120 or -110 (some at -105 or -104). So, there's no +EV to betting the coin toss. Depending on the juice, you're better off playing roulette. Some books do offer it at even $$. That's the only price I'd take it at. Otherwise, just bet a friend.
*Now, if you must bet the coin toss, I let the Fade/Follow Tool analyze it based on the past 56 Super Bowls, and it has a lean. I do use it on coin tosses, roulette, and random plays, so I thought I'd give it a shot here.
I'll be posting that, along with all the sharp action, public action, Needs, and Liabilities for the game and the prop markets in the Super Bowl report coming out tomorrow morning in the Member's Portal. For an example, check out last year's report. If you aren't yet a member, we're offering a one week pass for this week only, for access to everything.
*Now, if you must bet the coin toss, I let the Fade/Follow Tool analyze it based on the past 56 Super Bowls, and it has a lean. I do use it on coin tosses, roulette, and random plays, so I thought I'd give it a shot here.
I'll be posting that, along with all the sharp action, public action, Needs, and Liabilities for the game and the prop markets in the Super Bowl report coming out tomorrow morning in the Member's Portal. For an example, check out last year's report. If you aren't yet a member, we're offering a one week pass for this week only, for access to everything.
