UPDATED: 2/13/22, 6:10 PM (FINAL)

This is our look into the betting market for Super Bowl LVI between the Bengals and Rams. Let's see where the sharps, public, and books are, and what we can learn from that in deciding where to bet. 

Time: 6:30 PM ET

Network: NBC

Opening Line: Rams -3.5

Current Line: Rams -4

Opening Total: 49.5

Current Total: 48.5

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LINE MOVEMENT

Side: The line has remained fairly constant. It has dabbled between -3.5 and -4.5. The books decided early on that 4 was a fair number. The sharps nip at it on each side of 4, so it's beaten fairly into place. 

Total: The line on the total has moved down due to slight sharp action. It did cross the key number of 49 though. 

SHARPS

Side: Sharps are mixed on the side. They're hitting each side of 4. 

Total: We have seen sharp action on the Under. Currently, it is LOW. 

PUBLIC

Side: Depending on the book, we are seeing between 60-70% of action on the Bengals, meaning public is on the Bengals. 

Total: Depending on the book, we are seeing between 60-70% of action on the Over, meaning public is on the Over. 

VEGAS NEEDS

Side: With how heavy the action is, and with how heavy the moneyline and futures action is, the Rams are a Need on both the Moneyline and Spread.    

Total: With the public being heavy on the Over, the Under will be a Need.   

GAME SUMMARY

Side: The sharps are mixed and public fade is on the Rams. The Vegas Needs is the Rams.

Total: The sharps are on the Under and the public is on the Over. Vegas Needs the Under.

BETTR BETS

Side: With Vegas Needing the Rams, we recommend the RAMS -4. The books will also need the RAMS ML.  

Total: The sharps are on the Under, the public fade is to the Under, and Vegas Needs is the Under. This is a Pros vs Joes angle. The edge goes to the Under. We recommend UNDER 48.5. Do shop around to see if you can get the key number of 49. 

PROP BETS

TD Markets

Sharps are on: Henderson, Mixon, and Higgins for first TD and Beckham for anytime TD. The public is on Kupp, Chase, and Beckham for both first and anytime TD. Kupp anytime TD is a liability. Beckham first TD is a liability. 

MVP Market

Sharps are on: Donald, Akers, Burrow, Mixon, while the public is on: Donald, Burrow, Kupp, Mixon, Miller. Aaron Donald is the biggest liability. McPherson is the second biggest. Ramsey, Akers, Higgins, and Miller are also liabilities. Stafford is the best outcome. 

Do remember the quarterbacks win 65% of the time, so, maybe to go along with your ML bet, you could bet on a Burrow MVP or a Stafford MVP if you're on the Bengals or Rams respectively.

Coin Toss

Some books are wanting heads, and others tails. It's fairly mixed overall (of course). 

I've said to not bet the Coin Toss, but if you must, here's what FFT has to say...

FFT would have small leans to Heads/NFC. The coin toss is actually relatively streaky. It'll go 4 heads in a row, and then 4 tails in a row.  3 of the last 4 have been heads, and heads is down 29-26, and so you'd expect a regression. The NFC has won 22 of the last 27 coin tosses, so I'd assume FFT would be on the NFC. Also, since 7 of the last coin toss winners have lost, that would indicate a Rams win. So, you could go with "Rams Coin Toss Winner, Heads, and Rams No -215 to win coin toss and game"

One more tidbit, McVay and Taylor have deferred when a combined 72 of 73 times when winning the coin toss. That is -500 at most books. 

Gatorade Bath

Not much sharp action, but the public is all over Yellow/Green/Lime, Orange, and Blue, and Purple. Purple is the biggest liability. 

Miscellaneous

Sharps are on Johnny Hekker Under for longest punt length,  Yes for "Will there be three straight scores", Last Score of 1H-Not a TD, Successful 2 Point Conversion-Yes, Bengals to score first, and total sacks (by both teams) Under. 

Public is also on McPherson Over 1.5 FG's. 

PSYCHOLOGY ANGLE

The public wants a high scoring, fun game. Remember how "boring" the Patriots-Rams game was a few years ago? That is reflected in betting the overs in most props and in the game itself. The books (and sharps) want a low-scoring, boring game. That's why, No and Under rules the day. 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

The Super Bowl is obviously a big game, with a lot of $$ and forces at play. The books will be rooting for the Rams (both spread and moneyline), and the Under. They'll be rooting for NO's and Under on the prop market.

Overall, remember it's just one game, and don't put too much money into it. Super Bowls are typically my LEAST bet games of the day. But have fun! It'll be a fun game. 

Check back up until kickoff for any last minute sharp plays, big bets, or other factors that might change the BETTR BET. The Betting Market Analysis is just one angle to look at and is meant to be information for you in determining your bets. Do confirm your bets with other information, statistics, and models. Sometimes, we don't take the BETTR BET based on that other information.